Results tagged ‘ BABIP ’

Looking at the MLB’s Luckiest (and Unluckiest)

Quantifying luck in baseball has never been an exact science, but in recent years two stats have surged to the forefront in this area. Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and Line Drive Percentage.

The former stat shows how often a batter reaches base on balls put into the field of play; minus walks, hit by pitch, sacrifices and even home runs; while the latter is a great indicator of just how much a batter is squaring up on balls on a regular basis.

With that in mind, check out this post by @ The Baseball Professor:

Last week I took a look at some pitchers who were off to hot/cold starts, but now we will take a look at some hitters who may have been a little lucky or unlucky in this first three weeks of the season. I created a quick exercise to determine BABIP luck, which was to subtract a batter’s line drive percentage from his BABIP. Usually a higher line drive percentage equal a higher BABIP, so generally the larger the gap then the luckier the hitter has been.

Of course, I say generally because this doesn’t account for speed, ballpark or anything else, but it’s a good, quick way of giving us a snapshot of who has and hasn’t been lucky.

Top 20 Luckiest Batters

Notes:

  • Bryan LaHair‘s line drive percentage is a nice 24 percent, but his .545 BABIP is absolutely ridiculous right now. The 6’5, 240-pound first baseman is 5-for-9 (.556) on ground balls so far this season.
  • I’m a little worried that Jayson Werth is due for some regression. His 12.5 LD% is very bad, but, like LaHair, he’s batting an absurd 9-for-19 (.474) on ground balls.
  • How does Erick Aybar have a 6.4 percent line drive rate? That’s pitiful.
  • Emilio Bonifacio won’t have a BABIP of .391 at season’s end, but he could end up somewhere north of .350 thanks to his speed, especially given how his 17.5 percent line drive rate isn’t all that bad.
  • David Freese has an unsustainably high BABIP (.432), but that’s also the product of a 22.5 percent line drive rate. He’s crushing the ball right now.

 Top 20 Unluckiest Batters

Notes:

  • Curtis Granderson‘s 40.4 line drive percentage is absolutely ridiculous, but it hasn’t resulted in the kind of BABIP you’d expect.
  • I’m buying hard on Marlon Byrd. That doesn’t mean I think he’s worth an add in all leagues, but he’s completely fallen off the table in fantasy leagues due to his poor start. Now he’s in Boston in a good ballpark and a great lineup, and he has the center field job to himself while Jacoby Ellsbury is down for another month or so. Plus, his line drive rate is 24.4 percent. He’ll start hitting very soon.
  • Ben Zobrist will turn around. I maintain that he’s a top-40 player given his power/speed combo, and I wouldn’t worry about his sub-Mendoza .175 average. Buy on him in all leagues, especially via trade. He’s a streaky hitter so owners might be frustrated right now.
  • Neil Walker has his strikeout rate down to 10.2 percent, his line drive rate is 28.3 percent, yet he’s batting just .222. He will come around. Given the early struggles of second basemen on the whole, Walker is definitely someone to buy right now.
  • One of my major criticisms of Carlos Santana last season was his 15.4 percent line drive rate. This year he’s doubled that. Unfortunately he’s traded fly balls for the extra liners, so hopefully that balances out, but he still strikes out too much to contribute in batting average. That said, he’s walking over 20 percent of the time, too. That’s crazy good and means he’s getting great pitches to hit.
  • Matt Wieters is hitting line drive 27.5 percent of the time but has a .265 BABIP to show for it. I say this for two reasons: (1) He’s finally getting on the right track, and he’s hitting .294 on the season despite the low-for-his-line-drive-rate BABIP, and (2) he won’t maintain that line-drive rate all season, but his BABIP will go up so expect the .290 average to stick.

Any way the ball rolls it will be interesting to see how some of these guys numbers shake out by the end of the year.

 

Baseball Batting Statistics Explained

Baseball is arguably the most statistic-driven sport. Indeed, virtually everything that happens during a game can be recorded on the score sheet and categorized numerically. In recent years, fans and analysts have utilized technological advances to create new, often more complex ways to evaluate player performance.

The 21st century has ushered in what could legitimately be deemed a statistical revolution. And in order for us as players and fans to keep up with the trends of the sport, we must acquaint ourselves with some of these brand new stats.

What follows is an overview of some of baseball’s most prevalent offensive statistics. To keep this list more concise, it will not go over “counting” stats such as runs, hits, doubles, home runs, walks, strikeouts, stolen bases, and sacrifices. These statistics are certainly still significant, but neither their origins nor their means of evaluating performance require any further explanation.

Standard Batting Stats

If you watch baseball regularly, chances are you’ve come across the following five statistics. With the exception of OPS (which has been around less than 30 years), they’re all ingrained in the baseball vernacular, having been used since the game’s early days.

Batting Average

Calculated using the simple formula of hits divided by at-bats, batting average has always been the standard for measuring offensive success. In the big leagues, the player with the highest annual average is awarded with the “batting title.”

The drawbacks of batting average are that it doesn’t credit a hitter for reaching base via a walk, nor does it account for run production or extra-base hits. Furthermore, many statisticians believe that constructing an average based solely on hits is not sufficient enough to accurately gauge batting prowess.

On-Base Percentage (OBP)

More inclusive than batting average, OBP measures the frequency at which a player reaches base, using the following formula:

  • OBP = (hits + bases on balls + hit by pitch) ÷ (at bats + bases on balls + hit by hitch + sacrifice flies)

Many people place more value in OBP than batting average. This is because, ultimately, a hitter’s individual goal is to reach base. In this way, on-base percentage more fully reflects a batter’s success rate.

Runs Batted In (RBI)

If you get a base hit, force out, fly out, walk, or hit by pitch that directly results in a run being scored, you are credited with a run batted in. For years, RBI was one of the most important offensive stats, which is understandable, since the ultimate goal in baseball is to score runs. Recently, with the advent of Sabermetrics, RBI’s value as a statistic has taken a hit.

Statisticians argue that RBI is far too contingent upon factors that a hitter cannot control, most importantly, whether runners are on base when a hitter bats. While batters that accumulate a lot of RBI are undoubtedly successful run-producers, it’s also true that the players with the most RBI are typically the players with the most RBI opportunities.

Slugging Percentage

Slugging percentage basically gauges a player’s power by measuring all of the bases accumulated via base hits. In order to have a high slugging percentage, a batter must not only be a successful hitter, he must also hit frequently for extra bases. The formula divides total bases by at-bats:

  • Slugging percentage = [singles + (doubles × 2) + (triples × 3) + (home runs × 4)] ÷ at bats

In many instances, the players who hit the most home runs will also be among the leaders in slugging percentage. It doesn’t necessarily measure how good of a hitter you are, as much as it measures how dangerous of a hitter you are.

On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS)

This stat was first conceived in the 1980s, and is considered by some to be the first Sabermetric statistic. OPS measures exactly what its name suggests: On-base percentage plus slugging percentage. Essentially, OPS takes two useful stats and puts them into one category. It measures a player’s ability to get on base, as well as his ability to hit for power. Many people believe that OPS is the most accurate and comprehensive indicator of the best hitters.

Sabermetric Batting Stats

The term “Sabermetrics” is derived from the acronym SABR (the Society of American Baseball Research). The concept was pioneered most famously by stat-innovator Bill James, who defined Sabermetrics as, “the search for objective knowledge about baseball.” In this spirit, the following statistics possess varying degrees of complexity, but all are designed to precisely reflect a player’s measurable value to his team. There are dozens of Sabermetric stats in existence, but the five on this brief list are among the most accessible and comprehensive.

Runs Created

James developed this stat in order to quantify the numbers of runs a hitter directly creates for his team over the course of a season. His rational was that a hitter’s job isn’t to get base hits and draw walks, but to put runs on the scoreboard. And yet, no single stat had previously been able to measure a player’s individual impact on team run-production. James originally used a simple but flawed formula that has since been refined (and made much more complex):
  • Runs created = [(hits + bases on balls + hit by pitch – caught stealing – grounded in double play) × (total bases + .26[bases on balls – intentional bases on balls + hit by pitch] + .52[sacrifice hits + sacrifice flies + stolen bases])] ÷ (at bats + bases on balls + hit by pitch + sacrifice hits + sacrifice flies)

Isolated Power

Isolated Power is a measure of a hitter’s raw power, essentially reflecting extra bases per at-bat. Those players who accumulate a lot of total bases also tend to post high Isolated Power numbers. It can be found using either of two relatively simple formulas:

  • Isolated power = (slugging percentage – batting average)
  • Isolated power = [doubles + (triples × 2) + (home runs × 3)] ÷ at bats

Secondary Average

This stat was created as a way to look at a player’s extra bases gained, independent of and complementary to, standard batting average. By accounting for extra base hits, walks, and stolen bases, secondary average is a more complete reflection of total production. It has a much greater variance than batting average; the leading MLB hitters are typically up near .500. It is calculated with the following formula:

  • Secondary average = (total bases – hits + bases on balls + stolen bases – caught stealing) ÷ at bats

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

BABIP is a statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (which excludes home runs, walks, and strikeouts) for which the batter is credited with a hit. In other words, when Player-X hits the ball in play, how often does he get a hit? Since a particularly high or low BABIP is usually difficult to maintain, the stat is often used to explain fluky seasons by hitters. To some extent, it measures how lucky a player is getting when he hits the ball in play. BABIP uses the following formula:

  • BABIP = (hits – home runs) ÷ (at bats – strikeouts – home runs + sacrifice flies)

Value over Replacement Player (VORP)

Instead of looking at Runs Created in a vacuum, VORP measures player performance against the “replacement level.” The term “replacement level” is meant to reflect a level of ability that is easily available to any team in a given league. In order to find Player-X’s VORP, follow these steps:

  • Multiply the league’s average runs per out by Player-X’s total outs made. This gives you the number of runs a league-average caliber player produces.
  • “Replacement Level” is defined as 80 percent of league-average (75 percent for catchers, because their defense matters more; 85 percent for first basemen and designated hitters, because their defense matters less). Therefore, multiply that league-average number of runs by 0.8 (or 0.75 or 0.85 if applicable). This is the number of runs you could expect a “replacement player” to produce.
  • Subtract the replacement player’s Runs Created from Player-X’s actual Runs Created, and the result is VORP.

Embrace the Revolution

Although they’re relatively new to the world of baseball stat analysis, the statistics on this list have already been widely adopted as performance indicators by scouts, coaches, sportswriters, and statisticians everywhere. Now that you have a basic introduction, hopefully you don’t feel too overwhelmed by the Sabermetric Revolution.

Basically, the goal is to evaluate baseball as objectively as possible. And although it’s never a good idea to worry about your stats as a player, keeping up with the trends of the game allows us to be more well-informed. Plus, next time you’re struggling at the plate, you can impress your coach by blaming it on a low BABIP!

Source: iSport

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