The Dreaded Leadoff Walk Rarely Fails To Spell Your Doom
(Courtesy of John Dewan’s Stat of the Week):
How often does the dreaded leadoff walk score?
How dreaded is the leadoff walk? Is it more dreaded than the leadoff single, for example? When a pitcher walks the first batter is it a bigger omen of problems than giving up a single? Let’s take a dip into the Baseball Info Solutions database to see what it has to say.
How often does the leadoff walk score? Going back 10 years, it’s 38 percent of the time. Not good (for the pitcher). How many runs score in the inning, on average, after the leadoff walk? .905 runs. That’s an 8.15 ERA, assuming all the runs would be earned.
So, when a pitcher gives up a leadoff walk in an inning, his ERA is, in essence, 8.15. Very bad. Very bad, indeed. (Note: this assumes the pitcher stays in for the whole inning and all the runs are earned.)
Now the piece went on to point out that the data shows that a leadoff single is similarly disastrous to a pitcher.
Leadoff singles score 38 percent of the time, same as leadoff walks. The average number of runs are the same too, .902 runs per inning after a leadoff single.
This led some to argue that in some instances a walk may be the better choice compared to grooving a relativly easy to hit fastball, but I’m not quite buying that argument.
Yes, the ball put in play has a chance of finding a gap – or the cheap seats in right field – BUT it stands a much better statistical chance of leading to an out seeing how a .300 hitter still does so seventy percent of the time.